Does your team have what it takes to make a run in March?

Posted: February 2, 2016 by jmklee in Uncategorized

okNow that we have put the longest, coldest, and darkest month behind us it is time to start taking college basketball seriously.  February is the time we separate title contenders from the bubble teams and start looking forward to March.

If you have been following the college game closely or not don’t worry.  Let’s take a look at where we stand now and where your favorite team needs to be come March.

There are many ranking tools but one stands above the rest.  Let me start by saying the poll do not matter.  The RPI is even worse.  Sagarin ratings? Meh.  The one you need to pay attention to and the one that has best predicted tournament success is the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings that can be found at KenPom.com.

Since the One & Done era has begun in 2010 no team outside the top 10 has won the title.  A more telling stat though is this one.

In the past 4 years only 2 teams have made the Elite 8 while being ranked outside the KenPom top 20.  (Marquette 24 in 2013 and Dayton 38 in 2014)

kenpom

As you can see neither of those teams made the Final Four so that means historically, your team needs to get into the Top 20 (top 17 to be exact) to have what it takes to be a Final Four team.

Here is the KenPom top 20 as of today.

1 Oklahoma
2 Iowa
3 Villanova
4 North Carolina
5 Virginia
6 Michigan St.
7 Louisville
8 Texas A&M
9 Maryland
10 West Virginia
11 Xavier
12 Wichita St.
13 Purdue
14 Iowa St.
15 Kansas
16 Oregon
17 Miami FL
18 Arizona
19 Duke
20 Kentucky

Here are where teams of interest that still have some work to do fall in the ratings as of today.

23 Valparaiso
25 Indiana
31 Notre Dame
32 Michigan
37 Dayton
48 Butler

The only three coaches to take a team to the Final Four that were not in the Top 20 in the past six years are Izzo (2010 rated 21), Stevens (2011 rated 33, Butler was 9th in 2010), and Smart (VCU was 42 in 2011)

 

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