Betting with Britt – Breeders’ Cup Edition

Posted: November 2, 2017 by cschrump in Uncategorized

by Kenny Britt

OK, as I said last week, of the 13 total Breeders Cup races (4 on Friday and 9 on Saturday), I hope to pick the outright winner in 2 or 3, but of the 3 picks I’ll give you for each race, I’m hoping to hit 6 or 7. Why is that so important? Cause I’ll be playing rolling pick 3s beginning every race and pick 4s when available with those picks, and sometimes I’ll even add more and spread it out. I will also make win bets on the races.

FRIDAYS UNDER CARD:

Race 3 (3:35 est) I like the 3 horse, Donworth, at 6-1. He’s taking a huge drop in class and taking blinker’s off to hopefully slow him down out of the gate a little bit and get him to relax. With Blinkers off he’s 9-2-2-3

Race 4 (4:10 est) I like the 8 horse, Spiced Perfection, at 5-1. 2 year old baby race, she has improved her speed beyer last 3 starts, she’s 2-2-0-0 at this track, and has 3 good work backs coming into this race.

Race 5 (4:45 est) I like the 1 horse, Archanova, at 4-1. One of only 2 horses in this race to ever hit the board in a race this long (1 3/4 mile, which is exceptionally long).

FRIDAY”S BREEDER CUP RACES

Race 6 (5:25 est) Tough baby race on turf. Chad Brown is the best turf trainer in the world. He has the 11 at 7-2 horse with the best turf jockey in the world and the 8 at 8-1 horse with a top 10 turf jockey. He has worked the 8 back 3 times on turf since last race, but hasn’t at all with the 11. The 8 improved quite nicely from her 1st start to her second start. I’m thinking Chad just thinks the 8 horse needs a little more time and work on the grass, hence all her works and none on grass for the 11. The 2 at 9-2 is fresh off the boat, getting first time lasix and probably the best turf trainer/jockey combo in Europe. SELECTIONS 11-2-8

Race 7 (6:05 est) This is the Vegas dirt mile race. The 8 at 7-2 is 4-3-0-1 at this track, so I’ll give him the slight edge over the favorite 6 horse at 3-1. The 2 at 12-1 is a long shot play, has good beyer speed figures and has 2 really good work backs, one of which was a bullet work. SELECTIONS 8-6-2

Race 8 (6:50 est) This is the baby race on turf for the boys. Long shot pick of the day is the 9 horse at 15-1. I LOVE this horse and I’d bet we get somewhere closer to 6-1 at post time. So, he’s ran 4 races. 2 were on dirt, didn’t run well, but throw those out cause this is a turf race. His other 2 starts, both on turf, both at this track, he won, improving his speed beyer in his second start. He has 3 work backs, 2 of which were solid, 1 being a bullet. The turf breeding is some of the best, both on top and bottom. I will be placing a win bet on this horse. The 2 horse at 8-1 has improved his speed beyer every start (69-76-84-91) and should keep improving as a 2 year old. Same deal with the 13 horse at 8-1, improving beyers each start (77-87-94-102) and ran 2nd twice to our 9 horse. SELECTIONS 9-2-13 (love the 9, big win bet)

Race 9 (7:35 est) Tough fillies and mares race. Short field, but 5 of the 8 horses have a shot. I’m gonna go with the 6 at 4-1 based on having the highest lifetime beyer and Johnny V up as the jockey. He has only ridden her twice, but winning both times. The 7 at 9-2 won her last race by 5 1/4 lengths and won the Santa Anita Oaks by almost 12. Honestly, she’s probably one of those 1st or last type horses, based on her past form. The 2 is the favorite at 5-2, is 3-3-0–0 at this track and won 5 of her last 6 races, and has a bullet work back. SELECTIONS 6-7-2

SATURDAYS UNDER CARD

Race 3 (2;20 est) Lets start the day out with a long shot on this 200k turf sprint for 2 year olds. The 2 horse at 12-1 is going to do it for us. He broke his maiden on dirt by over 7 lengths, then ran 3rd on dirt is a stakes race, then got shipped on the boat, went off as the favorite in a stakes turf race and ran 7th. Has had a 5 month layoff, been gelded, and has 4 turf work backs, 2 of which were bullets. LOVE

SATURDAYS BREEDER CUP RACES

Race 4 (noon) Literally any of the 13 horses can win this race. The 3 at 12-1 has the highest lifetime beyer, the next closest is a 98. She also has a couple nice work backs. The 13 at 4-1 really turned it on her last race and looks strong. The 1 at 9-2 has improved each start and has 2 good work backs, one was a bullet. SELECTIONS 3-13-1

Race 5 (3;37) This race should pretty much hold close to form with the favorite 3 horse at 5-2 the likely winner and the 6 horse at 7-2 my second pick. The 1 is also a nice horse, but I’m going to try a bomb here and go with the 8 at 20-1 with my 3rd pick. His only race in the states he ran second in a 6 furlong turf sprint and ran a 109 beyer on soft turf. That’s a REALLY good beyer on soft turf, imagine running on a sponge and sinking down every step, never truly getting your footing. Now he’s shortening up to a 5 furlong sprint and the turf should be fast out there. Wouldn’t even be surprised if he won and an across the board bet wouldn’t be a bad idea. SELECTIONS  3-6-8

Race 6 (4:14 est) This is 1 of 2 SHOULD BE heart attack races today. What does that mean? The only way the 11 horse loses at 9-5 is if the jockey or horse has a heart attack. The 2 at 8-1 is my second choice and the 4 at 12-1 ia my third choice. SELECTIONS 11-2-4

Race 7 (5:00 est) My top 2 choices here is splitting hairs. My top pick is the 9 horse at 5-2. All she does is just win, posting a 13-10-3-0 record and 3-3-0-0 at this track. The 6 horse at 8-1 is 13-6-0-5 and 2-2-0-0- at this track and has 3 nice turf work backs. The 13 horse at 12-1 is taking blinkers off and has only had 1 bad race this year, SELECTIONS 9-6-13

Race 8 (5:37) The 8 horse at 7-2 has averaged a 120 beyer this year, that’s pretty impressive. The 10 horse at 9-2 has the same type of form. The 2 horse at 5-2 is the favorite, but don’t see any better than a third place finish. SELECTIONS 8-10-2

Race 9 (6:19 est) The 8 horse at 6-1 is second off boat, second lasix, and ran a 122 beyer last out. The 2 horse is also 6-1 and is probably the most consistant horse in the field, almost always fiishing in the money. This is a speed horse, and if it’s a speed holding track, this horse could very well take the field gate to wire. The 10 horse is the favorite at 7-2 and a nice horse. SELECTIONS 8-2-10 (as the day goes, based on track bias, the 2 may be my top pick to wire the field)

Race 10 (6:58) The second of 2 heart attack races. This is the 2 year old juvenile for males, and you’ll see some of these horses in the Derby next year. AS OF TODAY, THE 11 HORSE at 9-5, BOLT d’ ORO, IS HEADS AND SHOULDERS BETTER THAN ALL OTHER 2 year olds. Having said that, you’ll see alot of horses growing up and getting better before next May, just not today. Running for the minor awards I’ll take the 1 horse at 8-1 and the 2 horse at 6-1. SELECTIONS 11-1-2

Race 11 (7:37) This race is hard for me and tests my loyalty. But I’ll make my top pick the 3 horse at 5-1. He won this race last year, the only time he has ran in the states, and ran a 125 beyer. My second pick is the 12 horse at 4-1. I’ve won a lot of money on this horse, and I wouldn’t be the least bit mad if he wins here. My third pick is the 10 horse at 12-1. Third race off the boat, both second place finishes, 3rd time lasix. SELECTIONS 3-12-10

Race 12 (8:35 est) The $6 million dollar grand daddy of them all. This is a 2 horse race between 2 amazing horses. The 1 horse, Arrogate is the second favorite at 2-1 and based on his works, he’s back. Gun Runner, the 5 horse, is the favorite at 9-5 . Then the 8 at 6-1 is my third choice. Here’s how I see the race playing out. I think Gun Runner will take the lead with Arrogate sitting in stalking position, with the 9 and 10 up in the early mix. I think the 8 will be sitting mid pack and if the 1 and 5 get into a speed duel, you never know what can happen, the 8 can come from behind and catch them, but I don’t see that happening. SELECTIONS 1-5-8

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